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ZCZC MIATWSAT 
TTAA00 KNHC 011248
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
800 AM EST MON NOV 1 1999

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

...SUMMARY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING OCTOBER...

FIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES...2 HURRICANES...1 TROPICAL STORM AND
2 TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS...FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING 
OCTOBER 1999. 

TROPICAL ACTIVITY HAS BEEN A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE SO FAR IN 1999. 
TO DATE THE SEASON HAS PRODUCED A TOTAL OF 11 NAMED STORMS...7
HURRICANES...AND 4 MAJOR HURRICANES.  IN AN AVERAGE SEASON...BY
NOVEMBER 1ST THERE WOULD HAVE BEEN 9 NAMED STORMS...5 HURRICANES
...AND 2 MAJOR HURRICANES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORMED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON 4
OCTOBER ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION
DRIFTED ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATED ON THE 6TH
ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPRESSION CONTRIBUTED TO WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER
THE COASTAL STATES OF SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN MEXICO. MEDIA REPORTS
INDICATE AS MANY AS 400 PEOPLE MAY HAVE DIED FROM THE FLOODING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1050
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THE 5TH.  THE DEPRESSION MOVED
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHOUT INTENSIFICATION UNTIL IT
DISSIPATED ON THE 8TH ABOUT 915 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

HURRICANE IRENE ORIGINATED FROM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN.  THE LOW GRADUALLY BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED ON THE
13TH.  TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WAS REACHED LATER THAT DAY WITH THE
CENTER ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF THE ISLE OF YOUTHS CUBA.  IRENE
MOVED NORTHWARD...TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...MAKING LANDFALL ON
THE ISLE OF YOUTH ON THE 14TH.  THE CENTER OF IRENE CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND POST ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT IRENE BECAME A HURRICANE AROUND
THIS TIME.  THE CENTER PASSED OVER KEY WEST FLORIDA EARLY ON THE
15TH.  AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WERE EAST OF
THE CENTER OVER THE LOWER TO MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS. LATER THAT DAY
THE CENTER MADE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FLAMINGO
...AND MOVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. TORRENTIAL RAINS...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-20 INCHES...AND WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WERE EXPERIENCED OVER MAINLAND FLORIDA...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
CONFINED TO SQUALLS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.  THE CENTER OF IRENE
MOVED OFFSHORE NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA LATER ON THE 15TH.  IT RETAINED
HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVED NORTHWARD PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA
COAST.  IRENE THEN TURNED AND ACCELERATED TO THE NORTHEAST JUST EAST
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS EARLY ON THE 18TH.  AFTER PASSING
THE OUTER BANKS...IRENE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED...AND REACHED A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 105 MPH ON THE 18TH.  IRENE CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD 
AND WAS ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW ON THE 19TH.  ALTHOUGH
DAMAGE ESTIMATES ARE NOT YET AVAILABLE...IRENE CAUSED CONSIDERABLE
DAMAGE DUE TO FLOODING IN SOUTH FLORIDA.  SEVEN DEATHS...FIVE 
DUE TO ELECTROCUTIONS AND TWO AUTOMOBILE-RELATED DROWNINGS...ARE
INDIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO IRENE IN FLORIDA.

HURRICANE JOSE ORIGINATED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA ON THE 8TH.  THE WAVE MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  WHEN THE SYSTEM WAS
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON THE 17TH. 
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED INTO
TROPICAL STORM JOSE ON THE 18TH WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  AFTER TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST...JOSE
BECAME A HURRICANE LATE ON THE 19TH ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.  HURRICANE JOSE STRUCK THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PASSING OVER ANTIGUA AND ST MAARTEN ON THE 20TH AND 21ST. 
THERE WAS SEVERE FLOODING DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
THESE ISLANDS...AND AT LEAST TWO FATALITIES.  JOSE THEN WEAKENED TO
A TROPICAL STORM JUST BEFORE MOVING OVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ON THE 21ST.  THE STORM PASSED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO.  JOSE TURNED NORTHWARD...THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE 22ND.

IT REGAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH AND PASSED 300 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
ON THE 24TH.  JOSE ACCELERATED INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND LOST
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE 25TH.

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DEVELOPED FROM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN...REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS ON
THE 28TH WHILE LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS
NICARAGUA.  THE DEPRESSION INITIALLY MOVED WEST...THEN NORTHWEST AS
IT APPROACHED THE NICARAGUAN COAST...AND REACHED TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA ON THE 29TH.  KATRINA WEAKENED BACK TO DEPRESSION STATUS
AND MOVED NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. 
THE DEPRESSION THEN MOVED INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THE
30TH...AND ACROSS BELIZE AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THE 31ST.
AT MONTHS END THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE YUCATAN.

SUMMARY TABLE
                                           DIRECT   
NAME             DATES        WIND         DEATHS    U.S. DAMAGE
----            ---------     -------      ------    -----------
T.D. ELEVEN     OCT 4-6        35 MPH       400*          0 
T.D. TWELVE     OCT 5-8        35 MPH         0           0
IRENE           OCT 13-19     105 MPH         0*          # 
JOSE            OCT 18-25     100 MPH         2+          #  
KATRINA         OCT 28-        40 MPH         #           0

* - MEDIA-BASED ESTIMATE
# - PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES ARE NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME 

AVILA/BEVEN/FRANKLIN/GUINEY/LAWRENCE/PASCH


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