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HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
3 AM AST WED NOV 17 1999

...CORRECT WINDS IN REPEAT SECTION...
                                    
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY HEADED FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...STRONG RAIN BANDS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
 
AT 3 AM AST...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  66.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...220
KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
 
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR.  A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVER THE
WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  LENNY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  STRONGER WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS AND OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE.  THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE WARNED AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 3 AM AST POSITION...16.5 N... 66.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 5 AM AST.
 
BEVEN
 
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