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HURRICANE BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 1999

...BRET...A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE THREATENING THE COASTS
OF TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO...
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA MEXICO TO PORT
OCONNOR TEXAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE
IN EFFECT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM EAST OF PORT OCONNOR TO
FREEPORT.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA SOUTHWARD TO
TUXPAN MEXICO.
 
AT 2 AM CDT...0700Z...HURRICANE BRET WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST  OR ABOUT 125 MILES SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF DUE EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
 
BRET IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.  HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY
THAT BRET COULD MOVE FARTHER NORTHWARD THAN EXPECTED...IN WHICH CASE
HURRICANE WARNINGS WOULD HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST.  RESIDENTS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE
QUICK ACTION.
  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  BRET IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 100 MILES...160 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH
OF THE HURRICANE.  EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF MOTION OF THE HURRICANE.
 
ONSHORE WINDS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM SURGE COASTAL FLOODING OF UP TO
10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER
VALUES AT THE HEADS OF BAYS. 

FOR LOCAL INFORMATION...SEE STATEMENTS BEING ISSUED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN YOUR AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 2 AM CDT POSITION...25.7 N... 95.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.
 
PASCH
 
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