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BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999

...ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE HIT HARD BY
SEVERE HURRICANE LENNY...
 
...ALL PREPARATIONS AGAINST THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
SHOULD BE COMPLETED....
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX OR 85 MILES...135 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF ST. MAARTEN. 
 
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE LENNY WILL BE CROSSING THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
WORSEN IN THE AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS. 
LENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  STRONGER WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM.  THERE ARE REPORTS FROM SABA OF GUSTS TO 60
MPH...97 KPH.
  
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
934 MB...27.58 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE.  THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE WARNED AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.6 N... 64.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 934 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM AST AND 9 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
 
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