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BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED NOV 17 1999
 
...POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LENNY HEADING FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH WINDS...ALL PREPARATIONS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED... 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO...NOT INCLUDING
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...MAY BE DOWNGRADED LATER TODAY IF THE HURRICANE
CONTINUES ON A NORTHEAST TRACK.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED BY
PLANE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  65.1 WEST
OR ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX.
 
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.  ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE LENNY WILL BE CROSSING
THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
WORSEN OVER THE WARNING AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.  
LENNY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE...THE FIFTH OF THE 1999 SEASON.  STRONGER WINDS
COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.  A HAM RADIO REPORT INDICATES THAT A WIND
GUST TO 75 MPH...120 KPH...WAS OBSERVED AT ST. CROIX. 
 
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY ESTIMATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 942 MB...27.81 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE.  THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE WARNED AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.1 N... 65.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM AST AND 3 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
 
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