HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE NOV 16 1999
...CORRECTED DISTANCE TO SAN JUAN...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY HEADED FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...
AND ST. KITTS.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MONTSERRAT...BARBUDA...AND ANTIGUA.
 
THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT MAY ISSUE A HURRICANE WATCH OR WARNING LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS UNDER THEIR RESPONSIBILITY.
 
ALL WARNINGS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE DISCONTINUED.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  67.0 WEST
OR ABOUT 170 MILES...270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO.
 
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.  A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING
THE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
WORSEN OVER THE WARNING AREA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LENNY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  STRONGER WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS AND OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE.  THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE WARNED AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...16.2 N... 67.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM AST AND 3 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST...WEDNESDAY.
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
NNNN