HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE NOV 16 1999
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE
GOVERNMENTS...DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...AND FOR
ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST. KITTS...MONTSERRAT...BARBUDA AND ANTIGUA.
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THESE ISLANDS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT MAY ISSUE A HURRICANE WATCH LATER TODAY FOR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS UNDER THEIR RESPONSIBILITY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO BEATA TO CABO ENGANO.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR HAITI HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  69.8 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES...535 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
 
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 16 MPH ...26 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. 
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS OVER WATER AT THIS TIME BUT WILL LIKELY BE
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE WARNED AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...15.3 N... 69.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
 
NNNN