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TROPICAL STORM JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU OCT 21 1999

...JOSE DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
 
AT 11 AM AST..1500 UTC...WARNINGS FOR ALL OTHER ISLANDS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  65.1 WEST
OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...NORTH NORTHWEST OF ST. THOMAS IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER
OF JOSE WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF AND NEAR NORTHEASTERN PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE.  HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
 
TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...18.6 N... 65.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
 
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