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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU OCT 21 1999
 
...JOSE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...NOW A MINIMAL HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...BARBUDA...
NEVIS...ST. KITTS...ANGUILLA...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMY.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR DUTCH ST.
MAARTEN...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SABA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
 
ALL REMAINING WARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. 
JOSE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.
 
JOSE HAS WEAKENED AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER ISLANDS WITH ELEVATED
TERRAIN.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.  A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND
ITS EFFECTS COVER A LARGE AREA.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA TO BE 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE.  HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
 
TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
 
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...18.5 N... 64.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.
 
FRANKLIN
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
 
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