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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE OCT 19 1999
 
...JOSE NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO WORSEN
SOON...ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED
FOR ST. LUCIA AND BARBADOS.
 
EARLIER...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...DOMINICA...GUADELOUPE
AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
NEVIS...ST. KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS...SABA...DUTCH ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA...THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...FRENCH ST.
MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
 
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JOSE.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  60.0 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...165
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.
 
JOSE HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR....OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  A MOTION BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...JOSE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.  WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE OVER SOME OF THESE ISLANDS IN A FEW HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND ITS EFFECTS COVER A LARGE AREA.
DO NOT FOCUS ONLY ON THE TRACK.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  80 MPH...130 KM/HR...CONFINED TO A
SMALL AREA EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER
ISLANDS WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS  986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF
JOSE.  HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
 
TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.9 N... 60.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST...WEDNESDAY.
 
GUINEY/PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
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