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HURRICANE JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE OCT 19 1999

...HURRICANE JOSE NEARING THE LESSER ANTILLES...WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN
TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT...ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR PUERTO RICO.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA...MONTSERRAT
...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...NEVIS...ST. KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS...
SABA...DUTCH ST MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE...ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH INSTEAD OF A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...FRENCH ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA AND BARBADOS.
 
AT A 5 PM AST..2100 UTC A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. LUCIA IS
DISCONTINUED.
 
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JOSE.

A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND ITS EFFECTS COVER A LARGE AREA.  DO
NOT FOCUS ONLY ON THE TRACK.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  59.5 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...190
KM...EAST OF DOMINICA IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.  
 
JOSE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 13
MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...JOSE SHOULD MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY BUT WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE TONIGHT. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...CONFINED TO A
SMALL AREA EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SUBSTANTIALLY
HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN ISLANDS WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES...35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM..MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF
JOSE.
 
TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
 
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...15.1 N... 59.5 W.  MOVEMENT
BETWEEN WEST NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...75 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
 
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