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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER  8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE OCT 19 1999

..JOSE BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES...
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR DOMINICA...MONTSERRAT
... ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...NEVIS...ST. KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS...
SABA...DUTCH ST MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE...ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH INSTEAD OF A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...FRENCH ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.  THE GOVERNMENT OF
FRANCE ISSUES A HURRICANE WARNING SIX TO NINE HOURS IN ADVANCE.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR ST.
LUCIA AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR PUERTO RICO.
 
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JOSE. 

A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND ITS EFFECTS COVER A LARGE AREA.  DO
NOT FOCUS ONLY ON THE TRACK.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  58.5 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...325
KM...EAST SOUTH EAST OF DOMINICA IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.
 
JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK JOSE SHOULD BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...IN A SMALL
AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN ISLANDS WITH
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF
JOSE.

TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND BATTERING WAVES. 

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...14.3 N... 58.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
 
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