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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN OCT 17 1999

...DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
 
A TROPICAL STORM OR A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY.  INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  52.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 580 MILES...930 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL
LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY MONDAY.  THE SYSTEM COULD REACH
HURRICANE STATUS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.0 N... 52.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST...MONDAY.
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
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