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HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999

...IRENE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...LESSENING THE
THREAT TO NORTH CAROLINA...
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FROM SURF
CITY NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...ALL REMAINING HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE
DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
 
ALL INTERESTS SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA SHOULD EXERCISE DUE CAUTION
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.
 
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.  WITH THIS TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...THE THREAT TO NORTH
CAROLINA IS DECREASING.  IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES THE WARNINGS MAY
BE LOWERED SOMETIME ON MONDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 310 MILES.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN LOCATIONS WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.
 
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
WILL OCCUR NEAR THE PATH OF IRENE.  IF IRENE CONTINUES MOVING IN ITS
CURRENT DIRECTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LESSEN. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CAROLINA...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY PRODUCE SERIOUS FLOODING.  SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN COASTAL NORTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...33.8 N... 76.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 974 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT...MONDAY.
 
JARVINEN
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
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