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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 1999
 
...IRENE HEADING FOR THE CAROLINAS...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND
NOW EXTENDS FROM SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING
ALBEMARLE SOUND.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
SOUTH OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
TO VERO BEACH FLORIDA.
 
ALL INTEREST ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  80.0 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTH
OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.
 
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A WIND GUST TO 56 MPH WAS
RECENTLY REPORTED AT ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA...AND TO 55 MPH AT
DAYTONA BEACH.  BOTH SITES ARE REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 255 MILES...410 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
 
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
 
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE.  GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CAROLINA...EVEN MODEST ADDITIONAL RAINS COULD
PRODUCE SERIOUS FLOODING.
 
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 80.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
 
FRANKLIN
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
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