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TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999
 
...WEAK BUT WET HARVEY EXPECTED TO DRENCH PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTH
FLORIDA AS IT CROSSES THE PENINSULA TODAY.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD AND
ALONG THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM JUST NORTH OF JUPITER. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IS ALSO DISCONTINUED.
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
NORTHWARD TO JUPITER ALONG THE EAST COAST.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
AND THE ABACOS IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.0 WEST OR ABOUT 
30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA
 
HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH AND A TURN TO
THE EAST IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
SQUALLS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  HARVEY IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SAND KEY RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTS TO 46
MPH AND SOMBRERO KEY GUSTS TO 47 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...AND
UP TO 6 FEET AT THE HEADS OF BAYS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE PATH OF HARVEY.
SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES
FOR FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...25.8 N... 82.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
50 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.
 
 
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