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HURRICANE GERT ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE SEP 21 1999

...GERT NEAR CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO BERMUDA...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...BUT THIS WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GERT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  62.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
 
GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
 
A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
BATTERING WAVES OVER PORTIONS OF BERMUDA.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...31.7 N... 62.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
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