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ZCZC MIASPFAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 1999 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT WED SEP 22 1999 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.7N 86.7W 80 X X X 80 NORFOLK VA X X X 9 9 27.6N 85.0W 20 12 1 X 33 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 6 6 28.8N 82.3W 1 12 12 3 28 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 3 3 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 3 3 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 11 11 KEY WEST FL X X 1 4 5 BERMUDA X X X 4 4 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 6 8 14 MARATHON FL X X 1 4 5 FT MYERS FL X 1 11 6 18 MIAMI FL X X 1 9 10 VENICE FL X 6 13 4 23 W PALM BEACH FL X X 3 11 14 TAMPA FL 1 10 13 3 27 FT PIERCE FL X X 7 11 18 CEDAR KEY FL 2 18 9 1 30 COCOA BEACH FL X 1 12 9 22 ST MARKS FL 3 16 5 1 25 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 4 17 5 26 APALACHICOLA FL 8 14 3 X 25 JACKSONVILLE FL X 9 14 4 27 PANAMA CITY FL 6 11 3 1 21 SAVANNAH GA X 3 11 8 22 PENSACOLA FL 1 2 2 3 8 CHARLESTON SC X 1 8 11 20 MOBILE AL X X 1 1 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 4 14 18 GULF 29N 85W 13 15 2 X 30 WILMINGTON NC X X 2 15 17 GULF 29N 87W 12 6 1 X 19 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 15 16 GULF 28N 89W 5 3 2 1 11 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 15 15 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT JARVINEN NNNN