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HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1699
0300Z THU NOV 18 1999
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO 
RICO WEST OF A PONCE-MANATF LINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATF LINE
INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT
...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
 
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATF LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  64.1W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT QUASI-STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  939 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT
64 KT....... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW
50 KT....... 70NE 105SE  75SW  60NW
34 KT.......100NE 160SE 135SW  70NW
12 FT SEAS..100NE 160SE 135SW  70NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  64.1W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  64.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.4N  63.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  30NW
50 KT... 70NE 105SE  75SW  60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW  70NW
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.4N  62.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW
50 KT... 70NE 105SE  75SW  60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW  70NW
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.6N  61.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW
50 KT... 70NE 105SE  75SW  60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW  70NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N  64.1W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 22.0N  60.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 70NE 105SE  75SW  75NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N  59.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT
50 KT... 70NE 105SE  75SW  75NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
GUINEY
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
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