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HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1699
2100Z TUE NOV 16 1999
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING ISLANDS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...DUTCH ST.
MAARTEN...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...AND FOR ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS.  THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MONTSERRAT...BARBUDA AND
ANTIGUA AT THIS TIME.
 
THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT MAY ISSUE A HURRICANE WATCH LATER TODAY FOR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS UNDER THEIR RESPONSIBILITY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
PUNTA PALENQUE ON THE SOUTH COAST TO SABANA DE LA MAR ON THE NORTH
COAST.  AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WERE
DISCONTINUED FOR THE REST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  68.2W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST OR  70 DEGREES AT 15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
EYE DIAMETER  45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT
64 KT....... 25NE  50SE  50SW  25NW
50 KT....... 60NE  75SE  75SW  60NW
34 KT.......125NE 150SE 125SW  90NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 200SW 100NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  68.2W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  68.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.3N  66.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 25NE  50SE  50SW  25NW
50 KT... 60NE  75SE  75SW  60NW
34 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW  90NW
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.8N  64.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 25NE  50SE  50SW  25NW
50 KT... 60NE  75SE  75SW  60NW
34 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW  90NW
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.5N  62.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
64 KT... 25NE  50SE  50SW  25NW
50 KT... 60NE  75SE  75SW  60NW
34 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW  90NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N  68.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.0N  60.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  60NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 26.0N  56.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  60NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
 
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