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HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1699
1500Z TUE NOV 16 1999
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE
GOVERNMENTS...DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...AND FOR
ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST. KITTS...MONTSERRAT...BARBUDA AND ANTIGUA.
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THESE ISLANDS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT MAY ISSUE A HURRICANE WATCH LATER TODAY FOR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS UNDER THEIR RESPONSIBILITY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO BEATA TO CABO ENGANO.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR HAITI HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  69.8W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  80 DEGREES AT 14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
EYE DIAMETER  45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT
64 KT.......  0NE  45SE  45SW   0NW
50 KT....... 75NE  75SE  75SW  60NW
34 KT.......125NE 125SE 125SW  75NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 200SW 100NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  69.8W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  70.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.3N  67.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT
64 KT... 30NE  45SE  45SW  30NW
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  60NW
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.1N  65.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
64 KT... 30NE  45SE  45SW  30NW
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  60NW
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW  90NW
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.0N  62.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT
64 KT... 30NE  45SE  45SW  30NW
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  60NW
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW  90NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N  69.8W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.5N  61.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  60NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 24.0N  56.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  60NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
 
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