HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM...COR
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1499
1500Z WED OCT 20 1999

...COR TO REMOVE DOMINICA FROM FIRST PARAGRAPH
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...
BARBUDA...NEVIS...ST. KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS...SABA...DUTCH ST
MAARTEN...ANGUILLA... THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMY AND DESIRADE.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR DOMINICA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
  
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  61.5W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  30SW  75NW
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE  30SW 100NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  61.5W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  61.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.9N  62.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.5N  64.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N  66.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N  61.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.5N  67.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 30.0N  67.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
 
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