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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1499
0300Z MON OCT 18 1999
 
A TROPICAL STORM OR A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY.  INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N  52.5W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N  52.5W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N  52.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 10.3N  54.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 10.9N  56.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.7N  58.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N  52.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 12.5N  60.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 15.0N  64.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.

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