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HURRICANE FLOYD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0899
0900Z WED SEP 15 1999
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE...INCLUDING
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF SMITH POINT AND THE POTOMAC FROM COBB
ISLAND TO SMITH POINT.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA TO
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.  THE WARNINGS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL
LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND BAHAMA AND
ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.  THESE WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING  
INTERESTS ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF FORT PIERCE SHOULD
MAINTAIN PRECAUTIONS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N  78.8W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  938 MB
EYE DIAMETER  50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT
64 KT.......110NE  90SE  60SW  75NW
50 KT.......150NE 150SE  90SW 100NW
34 KT.......250NE 180SE 140SW 160NW
12 FT SEAS..600NE 250SE 200SW 300NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N  78.8W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N  78.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.5N  79.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
64 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW  75NW
50 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 100NW
34 KT...250NE 180SE 140SW 160NW
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.2N  79.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
64 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW  75NW
50 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 100NW
34 KT...250NE 180SE 140SW 160NW
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 36.3N  78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT
64 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW  60NW
50 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 100NW
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N  78.8W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 40.0N  75.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT
50 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  30NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 47.5N  67.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
 
GUINEY
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
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