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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN OCT 10 1999

THE CENTER OF IRWIN MOVED VERY NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND WHICH REPORTED
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS AT 2100 UTC.  LOW-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATE
THAT WINDS ARE ABOUT 25 KNOTS AND THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED.  IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM IS DEVOID OF
DEEP CONVECTION.  THEREFORE...IRWIN IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. 

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST OR SOUTH OF DUE
WEST...PRODUCING SPORADIC PATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS
SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS UNEXPECTEDLY. 

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0300Z 18.4N 111.4W    25 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N 111.5W    20 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 18.0N 112.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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