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HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN SEP 19 1999

THE BANDING EYE FEATURE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES DURING
THE DAY HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH RECENT 
IR IMAGES SHOWED A WARM SPOT WITHIN THE CDO. THE OVERALL CLOUD 
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY DURING
THE LAST 24 HRS WITH INCREASED SYMMETRY AND EXPANSE OF DEEP
CONVECTION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 
65 KT...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HILARY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HRS AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS...AND DISSIPATING OVER 21-22 DEG C WATERS BY THE 
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/11 KT.  HILARY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE 12-36 HRS IN RESPONSE TO THE 
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT BEYOND
36 HRS...AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES WEAKER AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING
BECOMES DOMINANT. 

THE WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A SHIP
OBSERVATION...I.D. DGSR...WHICH REPORTED 37 KT AND 19 FT SEAS ABOUT
105 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HILARY.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 21.4N 113.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 22.7N 114.2W    60 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 24.3N 114.7W    50 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 25.7N 115.4W    35 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 27.0N 116.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     23/0000Z 29.0N 118.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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