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TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 18 1999

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
...ALTHOUGH STILL ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST...IS LOCATED UNDER THE
DEEP CONVECTION.  THE SYSTEM LOOKS ORGANIZED ENOUGH ON EARLY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES TO BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT THIS
TIME. A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED THOROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 

INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS
295/06.  MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT THE TREND IS A GENERAL
TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST.  ONLY THE UK MODEL MOVES
HILARY NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ENSEMBLE AND CALLS FOR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/1500Z 16.5N 111.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     19/0000Z 17.0N 111.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N 112.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.5N 114.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     21/1200Z 20.5N 115.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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