HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 08 1999

GREG HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW A SWIRL
OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS
OVER THE SYSTEM.  MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WELL-REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER...ABOUT 80NM TO THE WEST.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REFLECT THIS WEAKENING TREND...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS 30 KTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HRS. HOWEVER...IF NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION 
RE-DEVELOPS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT THE SYSTEM MAY BE ENDED EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.

SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT GREG HAS
BECOME STATIONARY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HRS BEFORE DISSIPATION
...AND REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE UKMI AND BAMS.  THIS
TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST ADVISORY.
 
AS OF 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO DISCONTINUED 
ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE LAST PUBLIC
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE. LARGE WAVES AND HEAVY
SURF SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST TODAY 
AND TONIGHT.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/2100Z 22.8N 111.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N 112.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     09/1800Z 23.2N 113.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     10/0600Z 23.5N 114.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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