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TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 08 1999

EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM...AND CURRENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. 
THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND COLDER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE GREG TO
CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE IN THE
DISSIPATION STAGE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MOTION IS SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  SINCE GREG IS LIKELY TO
BE STEERED BY SHALLOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALONG
TRAJECTORY SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE.  THIS IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH/WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS DISCONTINUED.  MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF LARGE WAVES...THE WATCH/WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA IS MAINTAINED FOR NOW.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0900Z 23.3N 111.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     08/1800Z 23.5N 112.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     09/0600Z 23.8N 113.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N 114.5W    25 KTS
48HR VT     10/0600Z 24.2N 115.8W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     11/0600Z 25.0N 118.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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