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TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 05 1999
 
SHIP 3EJO6 ABOUT 90 NM FROM THE CENTER REPORTED 230/42 KT AND A
1006.5 MB PRESSURE. THIS...COMBINED WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...MEANS THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE-E HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM GREG.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE A RIDGE OVER MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST OF GREG AND AN
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK FOR 24 TO 36
HOURS THEN GRADUALLY BEND WESTWARD. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
AVIATION MODEL BASED GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG
THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD
INTRODUCE A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION.
 
GREG CONTINUES TO HAVE STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND GOOD
OUTFLOW. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. AFTER THAT TIME...STEADY
STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS IS EXPECTED. THE FORECAST TRACK
TAKES GREG OVER COOLER WATER BY 72 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD STOP
STRENGTHENING.
 
DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING AND PROXIMITY TO THE MEXICAN COAST...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LAZARO
CARDENAS AND CABO CORRIENTES...AS WELL AS FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. THE
CYCLONE COULD THREATEN OTHER PARTS OF THE MEXICAN COAST...INCLUDING
BAJA CALIFORNIA...OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
 
BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 19.2N 105.4W    40 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 19.9N 105.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 20.5N 106.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 21.3N 106.9W    55 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 22.0N 108.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 22.5N 110.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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