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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 23 1999

SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NOW
HAS A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E.  THIS MORNING CONVECTION INCREASED
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BECAME MORE COHERENT.  THE DEPRESSION IS
CLOSE TO COLD WATER AND CONVECTION IS ALREADY DECREASING...SO I
EXPECT THE DEPRESSION TO BE SHORT-LIVED.

INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN AS THE CENTER IS
HARD TO FIND...BUT THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED AS 315/3.  MODEL GUIDANCE
TAKES THE DEPRESSION AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN CLIPER AND THE SHALLOW BAM. 
GIVEN THE TRACK AND COLD SSTS...NO WARNINGS ARE DEEMED NECESSARY AT
THIS TIME.     
 
FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 21.4N 111.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 21.6N 112.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 21.9N 112.6W    25 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 22.4N 113.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     25/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     26/1800Z ...DISSIPATED
 
 
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