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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 21 1999
 
FERNANDA HAS LOST ALL BUT SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 30 KNOTS. THE 30 KNOT
WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS INITIALLY 255/9. THIS WEST SOUTHWEST MOTION INDUCED BY THE
PREVAILING TRADE WINDS BRINGS FERNANDA INTO SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS
THAT MAY ENCOURAGE PERIODIC FLAREUPS OF CONVECTION. THE CHANCE OF
FERNANDA REGENERATING IS HOWEVER SLIGHT BUT ITS WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR SOME TIME.

LARSON/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 15.6N 127.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 15.2N 129.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 14.6N 130.9W    30 KTS
36HR VT     22/1800Z 14.2N 132.8W    30 KTS
48HR VT     23/0600Z 14.0N 134.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     24/0600Z 14.0N 138.5W    25 KTS
 
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