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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 18 1999

WHILE FERNANDA REMAINS IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...THE CENTER HAS
DISAPPEARED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT
FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

SINCE CONVECTION HAS SPREAD OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED CENTER...THE
INITIAL MOTION HAS AGAIN BECOME UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
295/11...WHICH IS THE 12 HOUR MOTION. THE AVN BASED GUIDANCE AND THE
GFDL INDICATE A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION...WHILE THE
UKMET AND THE NOGAPS DRASTICALLY SLOW THE SYSTEM OR TURN IT BACK TO
THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO POSSIBILITIES...
INDICATING A SLOWING OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ANALYSES FROM THE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CONTINUE TO
INDICATE 15-20 KT EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR
FERNANDA. THIS IS ABOUT A 15 KT DECREASE FROM YESTERDAY. THE AVN AND
SHIPS MODELS FORECAST A FURTHER DECREASE IN THE SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW A FASTER DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND
BRINGS FERNANDA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
STOP INTENSIFICATION.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/1500Z 15.6N 119.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.1N 120.4W    45 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 16.6N 122.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     20/0000Z 17.1N 123.6W    65 KTS
48HR VT     20/1200Z 17.5N 125.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     21/1200Z 18.0N 128.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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