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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 17 1999
 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED.  THE SAB FIX IS 75 N MI
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TAFB AND THE AFWA FIX IS EVEN FARTHER NORTH.  THE
UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/11...NOT MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  MOST OF THE 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
MOVE THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OR MORE.  BUT THE 12Z
UKMET SHOWS AN EASTWARD MOTION AND THE 12Z NOGAPS SHOWS A SLOW NORTH
TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL IS NOT AVAILABLE. 
GIVEN THIS SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
TURNS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD BUT SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED TO 5 KT AFTER
48 HOURS.  THIS IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB...SAB AND
AFWA.  THIS IS BASED ON AN IMPRESSIVE COLD CDO LOCATED WEST OF THE
CENTER.  HOWEVER THE DEPRESSION IS NOT UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
ON THIS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE APPARENT POORLY DEFINED CENTER.  THE
FORECAST WIND SPEED IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CALLING
FOR A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS AND A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.  THIS
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH SHOWS A VERTICAL SHEAR OF
23 KT REDUCING TO 10 KT IN 48 HOURS.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0300Z 14.3N 116.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/1200Z 14.9N 118.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.7N 120.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     19/1200Z 16.1N 121.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N 123.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     21/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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