HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 17 1999
 
A 06Z SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR
13N114W SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 KT WINDS ABOUT 75
NM FROM THE CENTER. THERE IS ABUNDANT CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE...AND THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT
FROM SAB AND 25 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THUS...ADVISORIES ARE
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE BEING 295/7.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE PERSISTING THROUGH 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS
RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN THE RIDGE SEEN WHEN DORA FORMED
IN THIS AREA...IMPLYING A SLOWER MOTION. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS
CLUSTERED AROUND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY MOTION AFTER 48 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
THE MIDDLE ON THE GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAMM AND BAMD.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE AVN...
SHIPS...AND UKMET MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO PERSIST FOR 24 HOURS
AND THEN DECREASE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SLOW
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY FASTER
DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER
BY 72 HOURS...WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST SLOWING THE PACE OF
DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME.
 
BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1500Z 12.9N 114.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 13.4N 115.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 14.0N 116.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 14.7N 118.1W    45 KTS
48HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N 120.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 124.0W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN