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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 14 1999
 
DEPRESSION NINE-E CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE EAST OF WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINS. 
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  IN
ORDER TO ESCAPE THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR THE SYSTEM MUST
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH OR WEST.  HOWEVER...GOING NORTH WILL MOVE IT
OVER COOLER SSTS.  FOR THE WEST DIRECTION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WRAPPING AROUND ON THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM AND ANY MOTION TOWARD THE WEST WILL ENTRAIN THIS
STABLE AIR.  IN FACT...SOME MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN ENTRAINED. 
THUS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BE DISSIPATED IN 24
HOURS.

T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 1.5 FROM SAB/MIAMI/GLOBAL AND MAXIMUM MEASURED LOW
LEVEL CLOUD ELEMENTS ARE MOVING ABOUT 20 KTS.  THUS...OFFICIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KTS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/4.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE
SYSTEM IN THIS DIRECTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 15.0N 119.7W    25 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 15.2N 120.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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