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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 14 1999
 
THERE IS NOT MUCH TO SAY ABOUT NINE-E EXCEPT THAT IT IS A SHEARED
DEPRESSION WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE SHAPELESS AND WEAKENING CONVECTION.  IN FACT...THE MID-LEVEL
ROTATION IS WELL DISPLACED FROM THE LOW-LEVELS.   FIXES FROM ALL
AGENCIES ARE VERY SCATTERED WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR DISORGANIZED
SYSTEMS.  I INHERIT AN INTENSITY FORECAST...BASED ON SHIPS AND
SHIFOR MODELS...WHICH INDICATES A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND THERE IS
NO REASON TO CHANGE IT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...BOTH GFDL AND AVN
MODELS WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS 290/08 AND
WITH A RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
DEPRESSION...A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH MOVES THE DEPRESSION VERY SLOWLY.   

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 15.0N 119.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N 120.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N 122.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.3N 124.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N 127.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 17.0N 132.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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