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HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 1999
 
EUGENE APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING AS THE EYE FEATURE
DISAPPEARED AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST SLIPPED SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE STORM CENTER. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
DENSE OVERCAST HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY WILL HELP
CLARIFY CENTER LOCATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY
BE SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE THAT HAS RESULTED IN THIS
DISPLACEMENT AND ACCOMPANYING WEAKENING. CONVECTION IS STILL FORMING
IN BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER HOWEVER AND THIS REMAINS A STRONG STORM
WITH 85 KT WINDS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/12...A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  WITH THE INITIAL AND PAST POSITIONS RELOCATED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED BACK A
BIT TOWARD THE NORTH.  BUT WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING FORECAST BY
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL DUE TO MOVEMENT OVER COOLER WATER... LATER
TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO A SLIGHTLY LESS NORTHWESTERLY ANGLE.
EUGENE SHOULD TRACK WESTWARD FOR 12-24 HOURS SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD 
A BREAK IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  AS EUGENE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DEEP LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE
DISORGANIZED AND SOME SLACKENING IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED.
 
FARRELL/GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/1500Z 13.7N 136.4W    85 KTS
12HR VT     11/0000Z 13.7N 138.2W    85 KTS
24HR VT     11/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     12/0000Z 14.5N 143.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     12/1200Z 15.0N 145.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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