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TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 1999
 
THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND
THE T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY
FORECAST MODEL...USING THE OFFICIAL TRACK AS INPUT...NOW BRINGS
EUGENE TO A 65 KNOT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.  AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE STORM DOES NOT LOOK
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT ANTICIPATE
THAT EUGENE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 295/8...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS.  MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY MOVES STORM WEST-NORTHWEST AND
SLOWLY TURNS TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO.
 
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 13.2N 122.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 13.6N 123.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 14.2N 124.8W    50 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 14.7N 126.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 15.0N 128.1W    60 KTS
72HR VT     10/0000Z 15.5N 131.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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