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TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 1999
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED WELL ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWING ITS RAPID DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 30 KT...BUT BOTH WOULD BE HIGHER
IF NOT CONSTRAINED BY CLASSIFICATION RULES.  ALTHOUGH SMALL AND
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING GOOD OUTER BANDS...AND
IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EUGENE IN THIS PACKAGE.

INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 285/5...BUT WITH MORE THAN THE
USUAL UNCERTAINTY.  MID-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN/CIMSS SHOW A LARGE RIDGE AHEAD OF EUGENE THAT SHOULD KEEP
THE STORM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES THE SPEED TO MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL BRINGS EUGENE TO ABOUT 55 KT...
BUT THIS IS BASED ON THE LBAR TRACK WHICH IS OVER SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WATERS THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  EVEN SO...THE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE STORM DOES NOT LOOK ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT ANTICIPATE THAT EUGENE WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE.

FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 12.7N 121.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 12.9N 122.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 13.3N 123.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 13.8N 124.9W    60 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 14.0N 126.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     09/1800Z 14.0N 130.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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