HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

WTPA42 PHNL 080900
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST WED AUG 18 1999

MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE DORA A GRADUALLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THIS PROJECTION HAS BEEN CONSIST AND SEEMS REASONABLE AS IT STARTS
APPROACHING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER WEST. THE PATH HAS
ALREADY SHOWED A VERY GRADUAL MOVEMENT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS WESTWARD MOVE. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO
SHOW SOME SLOWING IN THE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF DORA AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL PATH IS
ALMOST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACKS WHICH ALSO MEANS IT IS
JUST SOUTH OF THE MORE DYNAMIC MODELS. SLIGHTLY LOWER WATER
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DATELINE SHOULD INDICATE A SLIGHT
WEAKENING BY HOUR 72.
KAWAMOTO
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0900Z 16.8N 177.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.2N 179.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.5N 178.1E    65 KTS
36HR VT     20/1800Z 20.2N 175.7E    65 KTS
48HR VT     21/0600Z 21.8N 173.6E    65 KTS
72HR VT     22/0600Z 25.4N 169.5E    60 KTS