HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

WTPA42 PHNL 190300
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST WED AUG 18 1999
 
MODELS ALL BEND DORAS TRACK GRADUALLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME.
THIS PROJECTION APPEARS REASONABLE SYNOPTICALLY AS IT APPROACHES
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AHEAD OF IT AND SOME SOFTENING OF THE LOWER
LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE PATH HAS ALREADY SHOWED ITS INITIAL
NORTHWARD BIAS TODAY AFTER ITS EXTENSIVE STRAIGHT WESTWARD MOVE.
THE OFFICIAL PATH IS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN MOST OF THE
DYNAMIC MODELS. ADDITIONALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER IS SHOWN WEST OF
THE DATELINE AND WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN HOUR 72.
MATSUDA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 16.7N 176.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.1N 178.6W    65 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.8N 178.3E    65 KTS
36HR VT     20/1200Z 18.7N 175.6E    65 KTS
48HR VT     21/0000Z 19.9N 173.2E    65 KTS
72HR VT     22/0000Z 23.3N 169.7E    60 KTS