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WTPA42 PHNL 171500
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST TUE AUG 17 1999
 
DORA CONTINUES WESTWARD AT A STEADY 15 TO 20 KT PACE. THE PATH SEEMS
THE WORST POSSIBLE WITH RESPECT TO JOHNSTON ATOLL HOWEVER THE STORM
IS A MINIMAL HURRICANE WITH RECCE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 78 KT.  OUR
INITIAL WINDS KEPT AT 75 KT. THE FAST NEARLY 20 KT MOVEMENT WILL
RESULT IN A SUDDEN AND POWERFUL SWELL/SURF SURGE AT JOHNSTON. OUR
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL AND THE INTENSITY IS ALSO
KEPT UP ACCORDING TO THAT MODEL'S ESTIMATES. INITIAL MOTION VECTOR
270/17KT.
 
ROSENDAL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1500Z 15.5N 165.4W    75 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 15.6N 168.4W    75 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 15.8N 172.4W    70 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 16.1N 175.6W    65 KTS
48HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 178.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     20/1200Z 17.5N 176.5E    65 KTS
 
 
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