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WTPA42 PHNL 160300
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST SUN AUG 15 1999
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AND MOTION DURING THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP THE INTENSITY AT 95
KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE AND RECONNAISSANCE
DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVES CONFIRM A CONTINUED TRACK TOWARD THE
WEST. AS A RESULT...DORA WILL COME TO ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH
TO THE BIG ISLAND...ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT...BY 2000
HST THIS EVENING. 
 
AVIATION MODELS STILL MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUE TO BE TIGHTLY GROUPED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACKS.

HABLUTZEL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 15.9N 155.1W    95 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 16.1N 157.7W    95 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 16.6N 161.1W    90 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 17.1N 164.6W    85 KTS
48HR VT     18/0000Z 17.5N 168.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     19/0000Z 19.0N 174.5W    70 KTS