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WTPA42 PHNL 150900
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST SAT AUG 14 1999
 
HURRICANE DORA HAS REINTENSIFIED WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 90 KT
AND CURRENT DROPSONDE READINGS AT 93 KT. IT CONTINUES ON A DUE
WESTWARD PATH AND WITH FIRM RIDGING MAINTAINING ITSELF NORTH OF DORA
AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT EXISTING OR DEVELOPING TROUGH TO ITS
WEST WILL FAVOR ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD NUDGE IN DEFERENCE TO SOME
OF THE MODELS. IN TUNE WITH OUR THINKING THE BAMM AND BAMD PROJECT
A MORE WESTWARD AND EVEN WESTSOUTHWARD TURN BEYOND 48 HOURS. WE WILL
ALSO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INCREASED STRENGTH OF DORA THRU 24 HOURS
DUE TO THE NEW SST WHICH INDICATES A CONSISTENT 26 DEGREE WATER
ALONG DORAS PATH RATHER THAN THE EARLIER COOLER INHIBITING WATER.
MATSUDA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 15.5N 149.9W    90 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.6N 152.7W    90 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.1N 156.4W    90 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N 159.9W    85 KTS
48HR VT     17/0600Z 17.2N 163.2W    80 KTS
72HR VT     18/0600Z 18.3N 169.3W    70 KTS