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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 13 1999
 
DORA CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED EAST OF
THE EYE AT THIS TIME.  THERE ARE NO BANDING FEATURES AND THE
OUTFLOW IS FAIR. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING
AROUND 6.0 DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS INDICATING THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED...120 KNOTS.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN AS DORA MOVES OVER COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE
WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED BY SHIPS...SHIFOR...GFDL AND AVN
MODELS.

DORA IS MOVING 270/16 EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG DEEP LAYER OF
EASTERLY WINDS WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  CONSEQUENTLY...MOST OF
MODELS...PRIMARILY THOSE WHICH DEPEND ON THE AVN OUTPUT FIELDS
...INDICATE THAT DORA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS...MAYBE A LITTLE FASTER.  ON THIS TRACK...A WEAKENING
DORA SHOULD BE NEARING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0900Z 15.5N 134.7W   120 KTS
12HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 137.2W   115 KTS
24HR VT     14/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W   110 KTS
36HR VT     14/1800Z 15.8N 143.5W   100 KTS
48HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N 147.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     16/0600Z 17.0N 153.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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