HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 12 1999
 
SSMI IMAGERY FROM THE NAVAL RESEARCH LAB...ALONG WITH RECENT
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES...SUGGESTS THAT DORA IS GOING THROUGH A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE.  OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS EYEWALL
CONVECTION HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION
OCCURRING AT LARGER RADII.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB/SAB/AFWA ARE 127/102/102 KT RESPECTIVELY.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK
NUMBERS ARE DOWN A BIT TO ABOUT 115 KT.  BASED ON ALL OF THE
ABOVE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 115 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE AVN MAINTAINS STRONG RIDGING
NORTH OF DORA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF WEST.  THE OUTLIER IS THE
UKMET...WHICH HAS BEEN FORECASTING A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR OVER
TWO DAYS...A TURN WHICH HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE SO FAR.  

FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON WITH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES.  THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH DOES NOT INCLUDE THESE EFFECTS...
FORECASTS GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 85 KT OVER THREE DAYS.  THE LONGER
RANGE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 15.1N 128.4W   115 KTS
12HR VT     12/1800Z 15.2N 130.3W   110 KTS
24HR VT     13/0600Z 15.4N 133.2W   110 KTS
36HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 136.4W   105 KTS
48HR VT     14/0600Z 15.7N 139.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N 146.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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