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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 11 1999
 
DORA REMAINS A WELL DEVELOPED AND SYMMETRICAL HURRICANE WITH AN EYE
DIAMETER NEAR 15 NM AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -65C TO -70C
SURROUNDING THE CENTER. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 127 KT...115 KT...AND 115 KT RESPECTIVELY.
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN 6.2 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NUDGED UP TO 120 KT ON THIS
PACKAGE. SOME OSCILLATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS DORA MOVES OVER GRADUALLY
COOLER WATER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/12...JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AS IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS FORECAST THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH THE HURRICANE...WITH DORA
REMAINING ON A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDI...BAMM...AND P91E.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 14.9N 127.1W   120 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 15.1N 129.1W   120 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 15.3N 131.9W   115 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 15.4N 134.9W   110 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N 138.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     15/0000Z 15.5N 144.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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