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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 11 1999
 
THE STRUCTURE OF DORA HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  THE EYE DIAMETER REMAINS 15-20 NM WITH A SOLID RING OF MINUS
65 C SURROUNDING CONVECTION.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 115 KT...AND THAT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED FOR
THIS PACKAGE.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL DROPS DORA TO 95
KT IN 36 HOURS...BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE TOO EAGER TO
WEAKEN THE STORM OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  GIVEN THAT DORA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR MINIMAL WEAKENING OUT TO 36 HOURS.  BEYOND
THAT...DORA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE PATH OF HURRICANE EUGENE...WHICH
MAY HAVE MODERATED THE SSTS SOMEWHAT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/10...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.   THERE IS A DEEP-LAYER-MEAN RIDGE
NORTHWEST OF DORA WHICH SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...KEEPING THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0900Z 14.6N 123.2W   115 KTS
12HR VT     11/1800Z 14.8N 124.7W   115 KTS
24HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 126.9W   110 KTS
36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.3N 129.1W   105 KTS
48HR VT     13/0600Z 15.5N 131.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     14/0600Z 15.5N 136.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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