HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 1999
 
DORA HAS NOT CHANGED A GREAT DEAL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
MAINTAINING A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE 5-10 N MI IN DIAMETER. 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 102 KT...BUT THE OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF LATE HAVE BEEN RUNNING 105-110 KT.  BASED ON
THESE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 105 KT.  OUTFLOW
PATTERN IS ONLY FAIR.  THIS AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT DORA MAY BE NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 265/8 AND THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE AVIATION MODEL HAS A
PECULIAR VORTEX ANALYZED SOUTH OF DORA THAT SWINGS THE CYCLONE
SOUTHWEST... AND MAY BE AFFECTING THE BAM MODELS AS WELL.  THE MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AHEAD OF DORA IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD...AND
SHOULD NUDGE THE HURRICANE GRADUALLY TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0900Z 14.3N 118.9W   105 KTS
12HR VT     10/1800Z 14.2N 120.2W   105 KTS
24HR VT     11/0600Z 14.4N 121.9W   105 KTS
36HR VT     11/1800Z 14.5N 123.8W   100 KTS
48HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 126.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     13/0600Z 16.0N 131.5W    90 KTS
 
 
NNNN